The mood among European elites is notably bleak. A number of them, including European Commission officials based in Brussels, were conspicuously absent from invitations to Washington. There’s a prevailing skepticism regarding potential positive outcomes from Trump’s administration.
Ursula Von der Leyen
A trade war looms large as a pressing concern. Such a conflict would place Europe in a triple-front battle, not only with Russia and China but now potentially with the United States as well. Several scenarios could unfold. In one, the U.S. initiates tariffs against China, prompting China to flood the European market with inexpensive goods as a countermeasure.
This process is already somewhat visible, particularly in the automotive sector. A more troubling scenario involves the U.S. and China reaching an agreement to jointly undermine Europe. Unlike Europe, China’s representatives have already found their way to Washington, engaging in discussions with J.D. Vance.
Chinese Vice President Han Zheng and Vice President-elect JD Vance in Washington on Sunday.
Trump’s strategy is to engage with China within his first hundred days in office, marking a clear priority over European interests. The European Union, weakened by the crisis, may be left to manage on its own, possibly even bearing the brunt of the Ukrainian crisis’s aftermath. In a more severe outcome, Europe could be sidelined entirely, reshaping emerging markets in the process.
Olaf Scholz
Chinese firms are already poised to snatch up bankrupt German car factories at low prices. Meanwhile, Trump’s team is aligning with eurosceptics, supporting their struggle against European bureaucracy. Even before his presidency officially begins, Trump’s administration has left Brussels feeling defeated, a sentiment that’s likely to extend to London as well.
