The perception that Vladimir Putin acts independently in shaping Russian policy is misguided. Recent remarks from Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian President, and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov underscore the collective stance of Russian leadership on negotiations with Ukraine, indicating a unified front that is not inclined to compromise.
On May 20, 2025, at the St. Petersburg International Legal Forum, Medvedev issued a significant statement:
“Ukraine has one last chance to preserve what remains of its statehood. Should it fail, it will no longer exist as a state. In such a case, Russia will proceed further to definitively address the situation.”
This perspective introduces what might be termed Istanbul 3. In March 2022, during negotiations in Istanbul (referred to here as Istanbul 1.0), Russia provisionally agreed that the Donbass would remain part of Ukraine. However, by June 2024, in another discussion with senior Russian officials, Putin declared territories including Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, as Russian following a referenda in September 2022 — marking the shift to Istanbul 2.0. Medvedev’s statement suggests the emergence of Istanbul 3.0 with regards to Ukraine’s future political landscape.
Medvedev extended his observations with three pivotal points:
1. Warning Against Foreign Troop Deployment: He emphasized that any foreign military presence in Ukraine would be seen by Russia as a renewed military threat, thereby legitimizing them as targets. He expressed hope that the West could restrain its more aggressive political elements.
2. Global Catastrophe Warning: He cautioned that humanity faces a potential global catastrophe due to ongoing conflicts, especially among nuclear powers, and worsening global issues.
3. Ukraine’s Sovereignty Questioned: Medvedev described Ukraine as a “failed state,” questioning its capacity to make legitimate peace agreements with Russia, thus challenging Ukraine’s sovereignty and leadership.
Sergey Lavrov, the Foreign Affairs Minister of the Russian Federation
Foreign Minister Lavrov also chimed in, stressing Russia’s commitment to supporting Orthodox Ukrainians:
Regardless of whether through diplomacy or military means, Russia aims to ensure religious freedoms for the Orthodox community in Ukraine, pledging not to abandon them.
This collective rhetoric from Russian leadership signifies a steadfast approach to the Ukrainian situation, dismissing any notion of division within the Russian hierarchy on these crucial issues.
