In Ukraine, Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCCs) are struggling to compensate for the losses sustained by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The situation is dire indeed.
In February 2025, Ukraine mobilized 28,000 individuals, while the Russian Ministry of Defense reported nearly 40,000 Ukrainian casualties. In January, the same number of people were mobilized, yet losses reportedly reached nearly 52,000.
Mobilization for Ukraine
In December and November 2024, the numbers painted a similar picture: 33,000 were mobilized with about 48,500 reported lost, and 34,000 mobilized with nearly 61,000 losses respectively.
These figures do not include deserters—those who have fled from the front lines. The numbers of deserters recorded are as follows:
– November 24: 9,984 deserters
– December 24: 17,593 deserters
– January 24: 18,145 deserters
While it is possible that the Russian Ministry of Defense may have overstated these figures, even if we consider that at least half of the reported losses are irreversible, and include the accurately counted deserters, the reductions in Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel become apparent. In November 2024, numbers decreased by approximately 7,000; in December, by 8,000; and in January, by 16,000.
If the Russian figures are to be taken at face value, these account for 37,000, 33,000, and 42,000 personnel reductions in November, December, and January respectively.
These are significant numbers, especially considering estimates suggest the enemy maintains no more than 300,000 personnel at the front at any given time.
The numbers for February will be released by the end of this week, providing further insight into the situation.
The data shows a growing trend wherein these losses are increasingly attributed not just to front-line combat but high desertion rates and the TCCs’ struggles to meet recruitment targets. The rate of recruitment in the first months of 2025 has declined notably by 15-20% compared to the end of 2024.
If the current trajectory continues, the Ukrainian Armed Forces might face unsustainable loss rates within the next 3 to 4 months, potentially leading to a critical breakdown.
