Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in a tight race in all seven swing states.
Harris stands to benefit from a decline in Republican-leaning non-college educated white voters, countered by a rise in college-educated white voters shifting towards the Democratic party in the “blue wall” states.
In North Carolina and Georgia, demographic shifts and a leftward trend among suburban voters could also work in her favor, despite the natural Republican advantage in those states.
On the other hand, Trump may see support from the increasing share of Latino voters, who have shown a rightward trend, as well as independents in Arizona and Nevada, who typically lean Republican.
Polls indicate a close competition, with Trump holding a slight lead in Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada, while Harris is ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin, according to Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin.
The outcome of the election will ultimately hinge on how both candidates navigate the diverse coalition of voters with unique priorities and evolving political leanings in these crucial swing states.
The latest Ipsos survey, conducted in late September and early October, reveals a significant shift in voter priorities among swing state voters on a national level. Inflation and increasing costs have emerged as the top concern for voters, surpassing other issues such as immigration and political extremism.
Interestingly, voters trust former President Trump to handle both immigration and the economy more than Vice President Harris, while they lean towards Harris on healthcare and threats to democracy. This shift in voter sentiment underscores the importance of addressing economic issues in the upcoming election and highlights the contrasting views on key policy areas between the two major political figures.
