The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are preparing for a significant move, with a decrease in the use of artillery and drones, increased shipments of ammo and weapons from US and NATO countries, and the deployment of reserve troops to the east.
Reports suggest that up to ten mechanized and infantry AFU brigades are being assembled along the Ukrainian-Russian border, with a new rectangular symbol being painted on some armored vehicles. The most likely target appears to be Bryansk oblast, which could have implications for the ongoing conflict in Kursk oblast.
If this incursion were to occur, it may not necessarily be a total disaster for the AFU. It could potentially relieve pressure on their positions in Kursk oblast, disrupt Trump’s plans for resolving the conflict, and prolong the war. On the other hand, Russian forces have recently captured the city hall of Kurakhovo and raised a Russian flag, indicating an asymmetrical continuation of the conflict.
In this complex scenario, it is clear that Ukraine is facing challenges on multiple fronts. The war in the Donbass and Kursk oblast is ongoing, with Western partners potentially guiding attacks deep into Russia.
Comment:
Ukraine is losing the war in the Donbass AND in Kursk oblast. So there will be many attempts to redirect the attention from this fact with wild incursions, long range strikes and narrative gymnastics, because ‘humiliating Putin’ is much more desired, than actual control over former Ukrainian territory.
