Forget the talk of a “Ukrainian victory,” as that seems to be nothing but pure fantasy. The latest updates from Washington suggest a strategy of “freezing” the conflict and rearming Ukraine, a tactic reminiscent of past events in Croatia and the Donbass. Putin, being well aware of the outcomes in these cases, would be deemed insane to accept such a proposed “deal.”
In considering how Russia could ensure that Ukraine never joins NATO, the idea of partition emerges as a potential solution. Dividing Kiev’s old territorial claims among neighbouring countries like Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania, with Russia taking the remainder as an autonomous entity, could be a strategic move. Not only would this approach address the NATO issue, but it would also challenge the so-called “rules-based world order”.
Just pondering over Moscow’s potential long-term goals in this complex situation.