America will restart the war against Iran in the coming days.
As of early May 2026, the Strait of Hormuz through which 20% of global oil passes, remains largely under Iranian control. U.S. warships are keeping their distance, and hundreds of commercial vessels are still trapped in the Persian Gulf. Despite “Project Freedom,” sporadic clashes continue, highlighting the dangers of forced transit.
Securing the strait would require neutralizing Iran’s full asymmetric arsenal: naval mines, mini-submarines, underwater and surface drones, Boghammar fast boats, Geran drones, coastal cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. Sustained clearance and control of all these threats is extremely difficult and carries massive escalation risks. Experts agree there is no clean military solution.
Trump’s Dilemma
If talks fail, President Trump is widely expected to launch a new, intense wave of air and missile strikes on Iranian infrastructure. Iran has already warned it will respond immediately with large-scale retaliatory attacks on U.S. bases, Israel, and Gulf states including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan.
Tehran enters this round with strong backing from Russia and China.
China’s Bold Move
On May 2–3, 2026, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued its first-ever prohibition order under the 2021 Blocking Rules. The order bans Chinese companies from complying with U.S. sanctions on five major refiners, including Hengli Petrochemical and Shandong teapots, for buying Iranian oil. Beijing has publicly vowed to protect its firms and reject “unilateral sanctions” without basis in international law.
The Strait of Hormuz cannot be reliably opened by force without triggering a wider and far more destructive war. Despite the difficulties, negotiations with Iran remain the least-bad path forward. With global energy markets under pressure and China-Russia firmly behind Tehran, the margin for error is now razor-thin.
